{"id":2354,"date":"2019-02-18T14:38:57","date_gmt":"2019-02-18T14:38:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ar18.iiasa.ac.at\/?p=2354"},"modified":"2019-03-25T08:55:27","modified_gmt":"2019-03-25T08:55:27","slug":"permafrost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ar18.iiasa.ac.at\/permafrost\/","title":{"rendered":"Thawing permafrost and our warming planet"},"content":{"rendered":"[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.19.3″ custom_margin=”0px||” custom_padding=”0px||”][et_pb_row custom_padding=”0px||” custom_margin=”0px||” _builder_version=”3.19.3″][et_pb_column type=”2_3″ _builder_version=”3.19.3″][et_pb_post_title meta=”off” featured_image=”off” admin_label=”AR18 TITLE | NO IMAGE” _builder_version=”3.19.15″ title_font=”||||||||” title_text_color=”#000000″ title_line_height=”1.4em” meta_font=”||||||||” border_width_bottom=”1px” border_color_bottom=”rgba(107,73,147,0.31)” custom_padding=”||10px” global_module=”169″ saved_tabs=”all”][\/et_pb_post_title][et_pb_text admin_label=”AR18 TEASER TEXT BOLD” _builder_version=”3.19.3″ _dynamic_attributes=”content” text_font=”|700|||||||” text_text_color=”#000000″ header_font=”|700|||||||” global_module=”194″ saved_tabs=”all”]@ET-DC@eyJkeW5hbWljIjp0cnVlLCJjb250ZW50IjoicG9zdF9leGNlcnB0Iiwic2V0dGluZ3MiOnsiYmVmb3JlIjoiIiwiYWZ0ZXIiOiIiLCJ3b3JkcyI6IiIsInJlYWRfbW9yZV9sYWJlbCI6IiJ9fQ==@[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”AR18 CONTENT TEXT” _builder_version=”3.21.1″ _dynamic_attributes=”content” text_font=”||||||||” text_text_color=”#000000″ header_font=”||||||||” header_text_color=”#000000″ custom_margin=”||” custom_padding=”||” global_module=”172″ saved_tabs=”all”]
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\u00a9 Dave Bredeson | Dreamstime<\/p><\/div>

The study is the first to comprehensively account for permafrost carbon release when estimating emission budgets for climate targets, and specifically looked at how current emission budgets are impacted by CO2<\/sub> and methane emissions from thawing permafrost.<\/p>\n

An emissions budget is the maximum allowable amount of total CO2<\/sub> emissions to stay below a specific global average temperature. Because it is such a simple concept, it has become a popular tool for policymakers in efforts to remain below dangerous levels of warming. Emissions budgets, however, have a shortcoming in that they are strongly dependent on an assumed linear relationship between global temperature rise and cumulative CO2<\/sub> emissions due to human activity.<\/p>\n

Permafrost is soil that has been frozen year round for at least two years. Large amounts of carbon and other nutrients from organic matter is stored in the frozen soil, and is seldom considered in projections of potential future global warming. Although it is normal for the upper layer of permafrost to periodically thaw during the summer months, in recent years, this layer has gradually been expanding due to increasing temperatures. This means that more permafrost is thawing and releasing the previously trapped carbon into the atmosphere, which will reduce the budget of CO2<\/sub> we can emit while staying below 2\u00b0C of global warming. It is also an irreversible process over the course of centuries, and may be considered a \u201ctipping\u201d element of the Earth\u2019s carbon-climate system that puts the emission budget framework to the test.<\/p>\n

By adequately accounting for such a tipping process in emission budgets, the results of this study show that the world is much closer to exceeding the budget for the long-term target of the Paris Agreement than previously thought. The results further indicate that the effect can become even more significant for overshooting trajectories, in other words, first exceeding the targeted level, and then going back down to the target. The Paris Agreement explicitly acknowledges an overshooting trajectory, peaking first at ‘well-below’ 2\u00b0C and then pursuing efforts to get back to 1.5\u00b0C. During the overshoot period however, rising temperatures will lead to further permafrost thaw, which will in turn lead to more released carbon that will have to be removed from the atmosphere for global temperatures to decrease.<\/p>\n

The researchers caution that this is a risky strategy and getting back to lower levels after an overshoot will be extremely difficult. We might even have to prepare ourselves for the possibility of never getting back to safer levels of warming. They hope that their work will impact the scientific community by demonstrating that emission budgets are not as simple a tool as first thought and that it will help policymakers to design effective future climate mitigation strategies.<\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_accordion open_toggle_text_color=”#000000″ open_toggle_background_color=”#ffffff” closed_toggle_text_color=”#000000″ closed_toggle_background_color=”#ffffff” icon_color=”#00589d” admin_label=”AR18 References and information” _builder_version=”3.21″ body_font=”||||||||” body_text_color=”#000000″ body_font_size=”16px” toggle_font=”||||||||” toggle_text_align=”left” toggle_text_color=”#000000″ toggle_font_size=”20px” border_color_all=”rgba(106,76,147,0.34)” text_orientation=”left” global_module=”497″ saved_tabs=”all”][et_pb_accordion_item title=”References” open=”on” _builder_version=”3.19.14″ title_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”0em” title_text_shadow_vertical_length=”0em” title_text_shadow_blur_strength=”0em” body_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”0em” body_text_shadow_vertical_length=”0em” body_text_shadow_blur_strength=”0em”]Gasser T, Kechiar M, Ciais P, Burke EJ, Kleinen T, Zhu D, Huang Y, Ekici A, Obersteiner M (2018). Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release<\/a>. Nature Geoscience<\/em> 11, 830\u2013835\r[\/et_pb_accordion_item][et_pb_accordion_item title=”Further information” open=”off” _builder_version=”3.19.14″ title_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”0em” title_text_shadow_vertical_length=”0em” title_text_shadow_blur_strength=”0em” body_text_shadow_horizontal_length=”0em” body_text_shadow_vertical_length=”0em” body_text_shadow_blur_strength=”0em”]

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